Lawrence Jones pressed FBI Director Kash Patel over repeated assassination attempts on President Trump. The June 30 departure contract is at 61% YES, up from 56% yesterday.
Market reaction
The June 30 contract spiked 3 points at 2:33 AM. The December 31 contract sits at 79% YES, unchanged over the last 24 hours. The April 30 market is at 14.3% YES, with little time left until resolution.
Why it matters
The term structure shows a 47-point jump in odds between April 30 and June 30, a 61-day window. Traders are pricing in a specific development during that period, not a gradual drift. The largest volume is on the April 30 contract at $17,764 in daily face value, where the near-term resolution concentrates attention.
What to watch
Total face value across all sub-markets is $25,466, but actual USDC traded is $7,114. The June 30 market has only $107 in depth to move 5 points, meaning a relatively small trade can swing the price. The December 31 contract has $1,551 in depth at the same threshold, making it harder to move.
At 61¢, buying YES for June 30 pays $1 if Patel exits, a 1.64x return. That bet requires a catalyst within 67 days. Watch for White House statements or new FBI investigative findings. Any public move by Trump on Patel’s position could shift these contracts fast.
API CTA
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Kash Patel Out| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 60% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 78% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 14.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.1% | — | — | Trade → |
