Yair Lapid will receive 10 of the top 24 mandates in the Together Party’s Knesset list, according to KAN sources, and the Polymarket contract on “Netanyahu out by June 30” sits at 5.5% YES.
The allocation gives Lapid control of more than one-third of the party’s elected members, enough to split from Naftali Bennett after an election. The Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 market has ticked up slightly to 5.5% YES as traders price in Lapid’s post-election leverage against Likud.
The shorter-term Netanyahu out by April 30 contract remains at 0.1% YES with only 6 days left for resolution. There is no realistic path to Netanyahu’s removal before month’s end, and the market reflects that.
The June 30 market has average daily USDC volume at $1,423, with $9,495 needed to shift the price by 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop. Traders are waiting for concrete political developments before sizing up.
Lapid’s positioning within the Together Party matters, but the odds reflect an incremental shift, not a collapse of Netanyahu’s coalition. A YES share at 5.5¢ pays $1 if Netanyahu leaves office by June 30, a 18.2x return. That bet requires a substantial change in Israeli coalition politics within the next 67 days. Watch upcoming Knesset sessions and any statements from coalition partners Itamar Ben-Gvir or Bezalel Smotrich; signs of coalition instability would move this market fast.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
