Lapid and Bennett are set to announce a new joint party, challenging Netanyahu’s leadership. Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES.
The June 30 market shows 5.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The possibility of Netanyahu’s departure by April 30 remains at 0.1% YES, meaning traders aren’t pricing in any immediate political change.
The joint party announcement is designed to consolidate Israel’s opposition, targeting 30-40 Knesset seats. That would directly challenge Netanyahu’s Likud, currently polling at 26 seats. Markets have barely moved on the news. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete political developments before adjusting positions.
The opposition’s consolidation strengthens its position but doesn’t guarantee Netanyahu’s exit. The 5.5% YES probability for June 30 reflects low expectation of near-term change. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu departs by June 30, a 18x return. That bet requires believing the joint party’s momentum will translate into enough political pressure to force him out within weeks.
Watch for the joint press conference on Sunday evening. Any shift in polling or endorsements from key political figures could move these markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
