Yair Lapid has announced a new electoral alliance with Naftali Bennett, forming the “Together – Led by Naftali Bennett” list to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 elections. The market odds for Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 are at 5.5% YES, stable from a week ago.
Traders are pricing in this new opposition front, though the immediate impact is muted. The June 30 market holds at 5.5% YES, showing skepticism about the alliance’s ability to overcome Netanyahu’s coalition support. The April 30 market is effectively dead at 0.1% YES. The biggest recent move was a 1-point drop, with no conviction in short-term upheaval.
Volume sits at $79,019 face value traded across these markets, with only $1,762 in actual USDC changing hands. The June 30 market requires $9,495 to move 5 percentage points — enough liquidity for normal trading but not enough to absorb a major capital inflow without price disruption.
The alliance consolidates centrist and right-wing opposition under one list, but Netanyahu’s coalition still holds a working majority in the Knesset. The news changes the 2026 election calculus without creating a near-term path to removing Netanyahu from power. At current odds, YES shares for a Netanyahu exit by June 30 cost 5.5¢ for a 18.2x return, but that bet requires a major catalyst within two months.
Watch Netanyahu’s coalition dynamics around the budget deadline at the end of March. Defections or policy splits within the coalition would be the most likely trigger for real movement in these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
