David Lammy has signaled support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid the ongoing Mandelson controversy. The market on Starmer out by June 30, 2026, sits at 36.5% YES, down from 42% yesterday.
Lammy’s backing has cooled some of the pressure within the Labour Party, and the June 30 market’s drop reflects that. But the December 31, 2026 market remains at 59.5% YES, which suggests traders doubt Starmer survives the full year even if he weathers the next few months. The spread between these two dates points to an expected catalyst for change later in 2026.
This market trades $35,517 in face value daily, with $16,715 in actual USDC changing hands. The order book is reasonably thick: it takes $3,486 to move the June market 5 points. The largest recent move was a modest 2-point drop, consistent with traders waiting for new information before committing.
Starmer’s position is not secure. Lammy’s support is a political lifeline, but the scandal’s fallout is still unfolding. Buying YES at 36¢ pays $1 if Starmer exits by June 30, a potential 2.74x return if the controversy escalates. That said, you’d need to believe in a significant shift within 73 days.
Watch for Labour’s handling of the scandal and any shifts in Starmer’s internal support. Upcoming parliamentary sessions and public statements from figures like Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting will matter most.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Starmer Out In 2025| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |