Key Labour MPs are beginning to accept the necessity of UK welfare reforms, potentially stabilizing Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. The odds of Starmer being ousted by June 30, 2026, have dropped to 38% YES, down from 41% yesterday.
Some Labour MPs have softened their stance against welfare cuts, reducing the likelihood of organized internal opposition. The June 30, 2026 market fell 3 points, a modest boost in confidence for Starmer’s position. The December 31, 2026 odds remain higher at 68% YES, pointing to longer-term uncertainty.
The term structure of Starmer’s potential ousting shows a 30-point gap from June to December 2026, suggesting traders expect possible catalysts later in the year. With 67 days until the June resolution, short-term stability looks more probable.
Daily USDC trading volume is $15,446 on the June market and $14,116 on December. It takes $906 to move the June market 5 points, making it sensitive to larger trades. The biggest recent price move was a 3-point spike yesterday, driven by a single large order.
Reduced internal Labour tensions could stabilize Starmer’s position through the summer. At 38¢, a YES share for Starmer’s ousting by June 30 pays $1 if resolved, a 2.63x return. For that bet to pay off, traders need a significant challenge to his leadership within 67 days.
Watch for further statements from Labour MPs on welfare policy and any announcements that shift party dynamics. Starmer’s handling of upcoming local elections will matter.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
