Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES.
The blockade, enforced by US naval forces, has halted nearly all traffic through Hormuz, disrupting global oil supplies. The UK warship deployment market is thin: volume at $70 a day in actual USDC, with $634 needed to move it five points. Odds have barely moved over the past week, hovering around 8-9%.
Kuwait’s force majeure declaration raises the stakes for military intervention to reopen the strait. But the market remains skeptical about near-term UK involvement without a clear signal from the Ministry of Defence.
If the blockade continues, pressure will build on Western allies to act, especially if Gulf states request international military support. A YES position at 8.5¢ pays 11.8x if UK warships do transit Hormuz before the deadline.
Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence and any UN Security Council actions. A confirmed naval movement or a coordinated international response could shift odds quickly.
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