Kuwait and Bahrain have shut down major bridges following threats from Iran against transport infrastructure. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have inched up to 5.7%, from 2% yesterday.
Traders remain doubtful about a ceasefire, with tensions rising and bets against a quick resolution increasing. Odds for an April 15 ceasefire are at 21.5% YES, up from 12% in the last 24 hours. April 30 odds are at 33.5% YES. The sharpest increase is between April 7 and April 15, suggesting traders expect no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Trading volume shows complexity. April 7 face value is $5M/day, but actual USDC traded is $153K/day. Moving the market 5 points costs $2,531, showing vulnerability to large trades. A recent 2-point spike occurred during morning trading. Similar volatility is seen for April 15, where $8,964 moves the market 5 points.
The closures highlight increased risk and lower ceasefire chances. With Iran targeting infrastructure and regional tensions high, hawkish rhetoric prevails. At 5.7¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a long shot. Believing in a ceasefire requires faith in rapid diplomatic action, unlikely given the current situation.
Watch for Trump’s statements on Hormuz or any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar, which could shift the market more than bridge closures.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 14.3% | +8.6¢ | $5.9M | Trade → |
| April 15 | 27.5% | +6¢ | $2.4M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 40.5% | +7¢ | $1.1M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 57.5% | +8¢ | $317K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 66.5% | +5¢ | $480K | Trade → |
| December 31 | 76.5% | +2¢ | $141K | Trade → |
