Kuwait Airways will resume flights on Sunday after authorities reopen the airspace, following closures since February due to Iranian threats. The likelihood of a Gulf State carrying out military action against Iran by April 30 is at 4.5% YES.
The April 30 market trades at 4.5%, up slightly from 4% a day ago. Daily volume is $683 in USDC, and it takes $970 to move the odds 5 points, meaning the book is thin.
Kuwait hosts US military forces, so its decision to reopen airspace is a direct signal about how Kuwaiti officials assess the Iranian threat right now. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike. Odds have nudged upward but remain low, with traders pricing diplomacy as the dominant outcome.
Airspace status is one of the more concrete indicators of perceived threat levels in the Gulf. Kuwait closed its airspace specifically because of Iranian threats; reopening it means Kuwaiti authorities believe the immediate risk has dropped. With Gulf states moving toward phased resumption of air traffic, the odds of military action by end of April are unlikely to rise without new provocations.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements and statements from US or Gulf leaders. A joint statement rejecting military action would push odds lower still.
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