Kushner and Witkoff will travel to Pakistan to restart US-Iran talks aimed at a peace deal. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The diplomatic move barely registered in the markets. The April 30 peace deal market holds at 8% YES. Longer-dated contracts tell a different story: May 31 sits at 34%, and June 30 at 54%, meaning traders expect any deal to come well after April.
Volume across these markets hit $854,588 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The largest recent move was a 7-point spike in the June 30 market at 11:15 AM, confirming that traders see more potential for a later deal than an imminent one. It takes $9,753 to move the June market 5 points, showing moderate depth.
Kushner and Witkoff traveling to Pakistan represents a renewed diplomatic push, but without direct face-to-face meetings between US and Iranian officials, the market reaction is muted. At 8¢ per YES share, a peace deal by April 30 would pay 12.5x, but traders aren’t buying it. Expectations are set months out.
Watch for statements from Pakistan’s mediation efforts or surprise announcements from Trump or Iranian officials. Either could move the odds quickly.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 53.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
