Khamenei’s death fuels speculation on Iran leadership change by year-end

## Market Snapshot

Market: Iran Leadership Change. Current pricing: December 31 at 34.5% YES, May 31 at 5.5% YES. Recent trend: December 31 odds have increased from 30% over the past week.

## Key Takeaways

– Sheikh Qassim’s tribute to Ayatollah Khamenei suggests continuity in Iran’s regional ideological influence. – The confirmation of Khamenei’s death is consistent with an increased likelihood of Iran’s leadership change. – Market pricing implies significant anticipation of leadership change in Iran by the end of the year.