Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has opposed extending negotiations with the US, according to Iranian MP Ali Khazarian. The market for Iranian regime fall by May 31 sits at 3.2% YES.
Market reaction
Khamenei’s opposition to extending talks has raised the probability of renewed conflict, pushing the Iranian regime fall contract, though it remains low at 3.2%. The Iran leadership change by December 31 market is more active, trading at 38.5% YES, up from 31% a week ago. The spread between the May 31 and December 31 contracts suggests traders price in significant developments in the second half of the year.
Why it matters
The leadership change by May 31 market is priced at 13.5% YES, a modest probability given the short timeframe. The December 31 market trades 25 points above the May 31 odds, meaning traders see far more room for change later in the year. Khamenei’s refusal to extend talks narrows the diplomatic window and raises the chance of internal friction if sanctions pressure intensifies without a deal.
What to watch
For those betting on instability, YES shares in the December 31 market at 38¢ offer a potential 2.63x return if leadership changes occur. The risk is that the regime has weathered similar standoffs before without structural change. Watch for any moves by the IRGC or announcements from the Assembly of Experts, as either could signal real shifts in leadership. The next round of diplomatic talks or military developments will directly affect these contracts.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
