Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair moved sharply closer after the Senate Banking Committee advanced his nomination 20-0. The May 15 contract for confirmation sits at 81% YES, up from 29% a day ago.
## Market reaction
The May 15 contract jumped 52 points in 24 hours following the unanimous committee vote. The June 30 contract is at 93% YES. The May 1 market remains at 1.8% YES with only seven days until resolution, meaning traders expect the full Senate vote to take at least a couple of weeks.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours was $19,708 in USDC, with the largest single move being a 20-point spike in the May 15 contract. Only $1,590 is needed to move this market five points, so liquidity is thin enough that a single large trade can shift prices meaningfully.
## Why it matters
Warsh’s hawkish stance against rate cuts, which he signaled during his Senate testimony, has implications beyond the confirmation itself. The market for no Fed rate cuts in 2026 is at 39.3% YES, holding steady over the past 24 hours. Traders are pricing in Warsh’s stated commitment to price stability over Trump’s preference for lower rates.
## What to watch
The full Senate vote is the next event that matters. Any shifts in senator endorsements or scheduling announcements could affect the timing contracts. For contrarian bettors, buying YES at 2¢ on the May 1 market offers a 50x return if the Senate moves unusually fast, though the odds reflect how unlikely that is.
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Kevin Warsh Confirmed As Fed Chair May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 94.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.3% | — | — | Trade → |
