Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, disclosed his Bitcoin holdings, and his confirmation odds in the Fed Chair Confirmation Predictions market now sit at 65% YES, a 15% increase since yesterday.
Market reaction
Warsh’s pro-crypto stance has attracted support from pro-Bitcoin senators, pushing confirmation odds to 65% YES. His confirmation hearing is 5 days away, scheduled for April 21. Traders appear to be pricing in increased Senate support following the financial disclosure.
The Bitcoin Above on April 16 market shows no reaction to the news, holding at 99.9% YES. Traders see no connection between Warsh’s nomination and short-term Bitcoin price levels.
Why it matters
Warsh’s apparent openness to digital assets could change Fed policy toward crypto if he’s confirmed. Trading volume on the Fed Chair Confirmation market has been thin, which means the 15% odds shift could reverse or accelerate quickly on new information. Interest has also picked up in the Fed Rate Predictions for End of 2026 market, where traders are weighing how Warsh’s views might affect future rate decisions. Any dovish lean from Warsh remains speculative until he clarifies his positions post-confirmation.
What to watch
The Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21 is the next catalyst. Strong GOP backing or a smooth hearing could push confirmation odds higher. At 22¢, a YES share on his confirmation pays $1, a 4.5x return. That bet depends on whether pro-crypto sentiment in the Senate translates into actual votes.
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