Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair heads to a Senate Banking Committee vote. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026, sits at 4.8% YES, up from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The May 31 market jumped to 97.0% YES, showing strong trader belief that Powell’s exit is near-certain by that date. The May 15 market spiked to 73.0% YES, meaning traders expect action in the next two weeks, likely tied to the committee’s decision.
The Kevin Warsh confirmation market sits at 92.0% YES after a 43-point surge in recent days. A successful committee vote would lock in those expectations. The low cost of moving the May 14 odds suggests a thin market, susceptible to swings from single large trades.
Why it matters
Volume on the Powell-out market is at $25,950 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The May 14 market requires just $3,604 to move 5 points, so any real news could cause sharp volatility. The largest move on that contract was a 48-point spike, a sign of trader uncertainty about the exact timing.
The closure of the DOJ probe into Powell removed a major obstacle for Warsh’s confirmation, and the political environment now favors his path forward. At 5¢, a YES share for Powell’s exit by May 14 offers a 20x return, which could attract traders betting on a rapid Senate move after the committee votes.
What to watch
The Senate Banking Committee vote outcome will determine the next steps in Warsh’s confirmation. Any Republican defection or procedural delay could swing these markets hard in either direction.
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Jerome Powell Out As Fed Chair| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 4.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 96.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 73% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 1 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.1% | — | — | Trade → |
