KelpDAO confirmed the April 18, 2026 exploit was an attack on LayerZero’s infrastructure, not Kelp’s own systems. The market for another $100M+ crypto hack by December 31 is at 100.0% YES.
KelpDAO’s statement identifies the breach as a $290-293 million theft caused by a compromise of LayerZero’s Decentralized Verifier Network. The attack has been linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. KelpDAO prevented an additional $95 million drain by pausing contracts quickly.
Because this event already qualifies as a $100M+ hack, the market is priced at 100% YES for at least one such hack occurring by year’s end. With 255 days left in 2026, the outcome is effectively settled. The attack’s scale and its attribution to the Lazarus Group point to ongoing weaknesses in DeFi infrastructure, particularly systems relying on single-validator setups like LayerZero’s DVN.
No new trades have occurred in the past 24 hours. The order book is thin, which is common in markets where the outcome is already near-certain. Any future movement in odds would require substantial order flow.
At 100% YES, the market is priced for certainty. A reduction in odds would require either a prolonged period without further hacks or a major security redesign across DeFi bridge infrastructure. Watch for statements from LayerZero and further investigation by ZachXBT or CertiK, which could clarify the scope of the DVN vulnerability and whether other protocols using the same infrastructure are exposed.
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