A Santa Barbara County judge has ruled that Trump’s use of the Defense Production Act to restart an oil pipeline doesn’t override state regulations. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April have dropped to 33.5% YES, down from 62% a day ago.
Judge Donna Geck’s decision is the first judicial rejection of the administration’s claim that federal law preempts state authority over the pipeline. The market for Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands dropped 6 points at 9:40 PM. Current odds sit at 33.5%, with traders skeptical about a resolution before month’s end.
The ruling undercuts Trump’s broader energy strategy at a time when fuel prices are rising due to the Iran conflict. It takes $818 to move the odds by 5 points, so the market isn’t easily pushed by small trades. The largest single move was the 6-point drop following the news, which points to concentrated selling pressure.
The ruling complicates Trump’s ability to use domestic oil production as leverage with Iran. A YES share at 33.5¢ pays $1 if he agrees to sanction relief by April, a 2.1x return. Betting on quick concessions is increasingly risky unless federal appeals reverse Geck’s decision.
Watch for White House or CENTCOM statements that signal a strategy shift. A visit by Iranian officials to Washington or a Trump announcement on Truth Social could move the market sharply.
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