JP Morgan now expects the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and September 2026, replacing earlier forecasts of hikes in April and July. The Polymarket contract for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.1% YES.
Market reaction
The April 50+ bps decrease market is flat at 0.1% YES with no movement over the past week. Face value trades at $3,767 per day, but actual USDC volume is $2 daily. It takes just $36 to move the market 5 percentage points, a thin order book by any measure.
Why it matters
JP Morgan’s revised forecast puts a large rate cut at the April meeting squarely off the table. The ECB has maintained a cautious stance on inflation, and the expectation of hikes in June and September points to gradual tightening rather than any immediate policy reversal in April.
What to watch
The stagnant odds reflect near-zero trader interest in a surprise cut. A YES share at 0.1% is a long shot: for a 10x return, you’d need to believe the ECB will reverse course dramatically within two weeks. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s upcoming statements and any shifts in eurozone inflation data before the April 30 meeting could move these odds, though nothing in current pricing suggests traders expect that.
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