Joe Kent, who recently resigned as Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center amid an FBI investigation, claims all 18 US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April is at 36.5% YES.
Kent’s claim could change how traders price the Iranian threat, potentially reducing the perceived need for Trump to make concessions like lifting oil sanctions. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April held steady at 36.5% YES, with no significant movement in the last 24 hours despite Kent’s statement.
The sub-market saw $3,094 in actual USDC traded over the last day, with $443 required to shift the odds by five percentage points. The largest move was a modest 2-point drop at 2:26 PM, consistent with a relatively thick order book for a geopolitical event.
Kent’s claim, though dramatic, may not move the market unless a higher-tier source corroborates it or it leads to official policy changes. Traders are likely to treat this as noise absent concrete actions or statements from the White House or senior officials. At 37¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to Iranian demands by April’s end, a 2.7x return. That bet requires a significant policy shift within the month.
Watch for official White House or Pentagon statements on the US stance toward Iran’s nuclear activities or potential sanction relief. Those would be far more likely to move the market than Kent’s claim alone.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.3% | — | — | Trade → |
