JD Vance’s planned visit to Pakistan for US-Iran peace talks has been postponed. The US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 4.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
Iran’s refusal to participate, citing alleged US ceasefire violations, pushed the market lower. The April 22, 2026 market shows little faith in a last-minute agreement. The April 30, 2026 market, at 26.5% YES, suggests some traders still expect a resolution in the coming weeks. But Iran’s rejection makes any immediate diplomatic breakthrough unlikely.
The intraday price action tells its own story. An earlier 4-point spike to 22% at 4:27 PM was driven by traders reacting to speculative news, then retreated as the postponement became clear. Volume was $547,661 in actual USDC traded, but $66,023 would shift odds by 5 points, meaning the book is thin enough for sharp swings on relatively small orders.
With Vance’s trip shelved and Iran’s stance hardening, the probability of a deal before April 22 is shrinking fast. At 4.5¢, a YES share offers a 8.3x return, but that would require a complete reversal in diplomatic engagement within two days.
Watch for possible Pakistani mediation efforts or statements from US officials that might restart talks. Without concrete steps, this market looks set to drift lower.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 56.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
