Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issued evacuation orders after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake off the northeastern coast. The market for another country conducting military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES.
The odds for military action against Iran by April 15 have dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 5% a week ago. The April 30 market at 8.5% YES suggests traders see possible escalation but remain cautious.
The Iran operations announcement market has seen heavy activity, with April 21 odds at 6.5% YES. Iran pledged retaliation after the US Navy seized an Iranian ship, and traders are pricing in uncertainty about whether a ceasefire extension holds.
Volume is $230,377 in USDC traded across the Iran operations markets in the past 24 hours. The largest move was an 18-point spike. With $8,090 needed to move the price 5 points, a single institutional order could shift these markets fast.
The earthquake in Japan doesn’t directly affect the geopolitical markets. The action is in the Middle East. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if military action is confirmed by April 30, a 16.67x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a military strike happens within 12 days.
Watch for announcements from the US, Israel, or Saudi Arabia. Trump’s next statement or any move from Israel or the Gulf states could swing these markets.
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Will Another Country Conduct Military Action Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15, 2026 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
