James Comey has been indicted on federal charges related to a 2025 Instagram post, and the odds of Comey being arrested by May 15 are at 87.0% YES.
Market reaction
The indictment charges Comey with making threats against Donald Trump via a cryptic Instagram post. Arrest-by-April-29 odds sit at just 11.0% YES, while the May 15 contract trades at 87.0% YES. Traders clearly don’t expect an arrest in the next few days but are pricing one in before mid-May.
The term structure shows a 76-point jump from April 29 to May 15, meaning traders are betting on a catalyst within that window. The largest move in the last 24 hours was an 8-point spike in the May 15 market.
Why it matters
Trading volume across the combined markets reached $52,511 in USDC. It takes $8,223 to move the May 15 price by five points, which is reasonably liquid. The April 29 market is thinner at $5,410 to move five points, making it more prone to volatility.
This indictment follows a previous dismissal and escalates the legal fight around Comey. The market’s sharp move reflects the political weight of the charges and the possibility of an arrest consistent with the Trump administration’s posture. At a price of 87¢, a YES share pays $1 if Comey is arrested by May 15, a 1.15x return.
What to watch
Public statements from Lindsey Halligan or Todd Blanche, along with any DOJ announcements on enforcement actions, could move these contracts.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 29 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 85% | — | — | Trade → |
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