James Comey, former FBI Director, has been indicted again, now facing an arrest warrant for allegedly threatening President Trump. “James Comey arrested by April 29?” sits at 76.5% YES.
The market spiked 18 points at 12:20 PM after news of the arrest warrant broke. The April 29 market has just hours to resolve, while the May 15 market is at 92.5% YES with 16 days left.
The 16-point spread between the April 29 and May 15 contracts suggests traders expect an arrest before mid-May but aren’t certain it happens today. Total USDC traded across both markets is $290,238. The April 29 market is thin, with just $145 required to move it 5 points.
Comey’s First Amendment defense and previous case dismissals suggest this could drag out. At 76¢, a YES share pays $1 if Comey is arrested today, a 1.31x return. The payout is real, but so is the risk of the April 29 deadline passing without an arrest.
Watch for statements from Lindsey Halligan, Todd Blanche, or Kash Patel. Any confirmation of the arrest or Comey’s non-compliance with court dates could move this market fast.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 29 | 78% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 92.5% | — | — | View market → |
