Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israel’s Chief of Staff, warned of a multi-front conflict potentially escalating in 2026. The market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Zamir’s statement has traders reassessing the 0% probability that Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by April 30. The June 30 version of that market is at 15.5%, up from 10% a week ago, as traders price in higher conflict expectations over the next two months.
The Trump ceasefire endorsement market has zero volume, meaning traders see no realistic path to U.S. diplomatic involvement before the April 30 resolution date. The Kharg Island market, by contrast, trades over $1.5 million in face value daily, with $36,635 in actual USDC, pointing to real trader interest in potential military developments.
Zamir’s comments most directly affect the June regime-fall odds. At 16¢, a YES share on Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a 6.25x return. That bet requires expecting significant military disruption within two months.
Watch for changes in U.S.-Israeli military operations or public statements from Netanyahu or the IRGC. These would likely move both the Kharg Island and ceasefire markets.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
