Israel’s haredi draft crisis is escalating and threatening Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 trades at 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from 6% yesterday.
The crisis stems from the Supreme Court’s ruling against haredi exemptions, which triggered mass protests and low compliance with draft orders. Enforcement bills risk driving haredi parties out of the coalition. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market sits at 5.5% YES, while the April 30 contract is nearly dead at 0.1% YES.
Trading volume is modest, with $1,423 in USDC traded on the June 30 market. Order book depth shows it takes $9,495 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning the market is thin and sensitive to large orders. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop at midnight.
Netanyahu’s coalition faces real pressure from the draft crisis, but traders clearly see immediate change as unlikely. The slight decrease in odds shows little conviction in a near-term resolution. At 6¢, though, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu leaves by June 30, a 16.6x return for anyone betting on further political instability.
Watch for moves in the Knesset, particularly new coalition agreements or draft law amendments. Either could shift these odds quickly.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |