The Iranian Red Crescent released CCTV footage showing an Israeli strike on a hospital in Iran, part of the ongoing 2026 Iran-Israel conflict. The market on whether Iran will strike Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
With the April 30 market locked at 100% YES, there is no room for price movement. The footage confirms escalating strikes on civilian infrastructure, a pattern consistent throughout this conflict. The Iran military action against countries markets reflect this with no significant trading activity expected.
Why it matters
The CCTV release is confirmation, not new information for the market. Odds are unchanged at 100%, meaning traders had already priced in this level of aggression against civilian targets. The footage documents what the market already assumed was happening.
What to watch
For traders, the footage doesn’t change the conflict’s trajectory. Current odds imply retaliatory actions are expected and won’t shift market dynamics unless they introduce a new strategic element, such as expanded targeting beyond the current scope of the conflict.
Specific signals to monitor: IRGC announcements on retaliatory strikes, changes in rhetoric from either side, and any indication of conflict expanding beyond expected targets. These could move related markets even if this one is already resolved.
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Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
