An Israeli Defense Official suggested a ceasefire might be announced Thursday night, according to Axios. The potential ceasefire would fall under the US-proposed Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict. Bitcoin’s April price relative to $60,000 sits at 100% YES on Polymarket.
The market for Bitcoin staying above $60,000 in April has already resolved. The odds on April 19 are at 100% YES, meaning there is no remaining upside for new buyers. A ceasefire announcement could affect broader crypto sentiment, but this specific contract is fully priced.
Netanyahu’s tenure market shows movement. The odds for Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 are at 5.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday. A ceasefire could reduce domestic political pressure on his coalition government.
Bitcoin’s market trades $495,375 face value daily, with $401,576 in actual USDC traded. The largest price move was a 31-point spike. The order book has substantial liquidity on both sides, making it hard for a single trader to move the price significantly.
At 100¢, a YES share on Bitcoin above $60,000 pays nothing beyond the purchase price. For Netanyahu’s market, a YES share at 5.5¢ pays $1 if he steps down by June, a 18x return on a low-probability outcome.
Watch for Thursday’s announcement and whether a confirmed ceasefire shifts volume into the Netanyahu contract or other geopolitical markets on Polymarket.
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Bitcoin Price On April 15
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 15 |
100% |
0.0¢ |
$17K |
Trade → |
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit On April 14
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 14 |
100% |
0.0¢ |
— |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 16
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 16 |
100% |
+0.1¢ |
$311K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 19
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 19 |
99.9% |
+0.1¢ |
$4K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 17
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 17 |
100% |
+0.1¢ |
$1K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 20
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 20 |
99.5% |
0.0¢ |
$1K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 18
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 18 |
100% |
+0.1¢ |
$89K |
Trade → |
Netanyahu Out Before 2027
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| June 30 |
5.5% |
0.0¢ |
$20K |
Trade → |
| April 30 |
0.8% |
0.0¢ |
$54K |
Trade → |
Updated 4min ago
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