Two Israeli Air Force soldiers have been accused of spying for Iran during Operation Roaring Lion, as reported by KAN News. The odds for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by April 30 have dropped to 1.9% YES, down from 3% yesterday.
The espionage accusations have pushed the peace deal odds lower. The market for Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 trades at 1.9% YES with $883 in daily USDC volume. The June 30 market sits at 13.5% YES, down from 19% a day ago. The 12-point gap between these two dates suggests traders expect any movement to come after April.
The market for Iran military action by April 30 remains at 100% YES, with zero trading activity reported. Traders are pricing military escalation as a near certainty.
The spy accusations directly erode the trust required for any ceasefire to hold, let alone a permanent deal. KAN News is an Israeli public broadcaster, making this a credible report rather than speculation. At 2¢, buying YES for a permanent peace deal by April 30 offers a 50x return if it resolves, but that requires believing a breakthrough is days away while active espionage cases are being prosecuted.
Watch for official statements from Israel or Iran, particularly from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any shift in negotiation language or ceasefire terms could move these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |