Israel’s Supreme Court descended into chaos during a hearing about an independent investigation into the October 7 failures. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market sits at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
Families of October 7 victims are demanding an inquiry with real subpoena powers, and the courtroom disruption adds direct pressure on Netanyahu, who has resisted such an investigation for years. Odds for Netanyahu out by June 30 have ticked up slightly as traders price in greater political instability.
The April 30 sub-market remains stagnant at 0.7% YES, unchanged over the past week. The term structure shows a six-point jump from April to June, which suggests traders see a potential catalyst arriving in mid-2026. Only 68 days remain for the June 30 market.
Trade volume is modest. $5,970 in USDC traded over 24 hours, and the order book is thin: $11,862 would move June odds by 5 points. That makes the market susceptible to large single orders swinging the price.
The courtroom chaos reflects broader political pressure as demands for accountability over October 7 grow louder. At 6.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu is out by June 30, a 15.38x return. The question for traders is whether judicial or political shifts in the coming weeks could force Netanyahu’s exit.
Watch for Israeli Supreme Court rulings on the inquiry’s scope and any Knesset motions tied to the investigation. Either could move this market fast given the thin liquidity.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
