Israel’s High Court has ordered the government to enforce the military draft law for ultra-Orthodox men and revoke financial benefits for draft evaders. On Polymarket, “Netanyahu out by June 30” sits at 5.5% YES, unchanged from a day ago.
Market reaction
The High Court’s decision pressures Netanyahu’s coalition, specifically his dependence on ultra-Orthodox parties. The June 30 market, at 5.5% YES, suggests traders see some coalition instability risk but aren’t pricing in a collapse. The April 30 market remains at 0.1% YES, meaning traders expect no immediate fallout within the next week.
Trading volume is $79,019 in face value over 24 hours, but actual USDC traded was just $1,762. Order book depth is $9,495 to move the June 30 market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The biggest recent move was a 1-point drop in the June 30 market at midnight, from 6% to 5.5%.
Why it matters
The ruling forces a direct conflict between the court’s authority and the ultra-Orthodox parties that prop up Netanyahu’s coalition. Shas and United Torah Judaism have long conditioned their participation on draft exemptions for yeshiva students. If the government complies with the court order, those parties face pressure to leave. At 5.5¢, buying YES for Netanyahu’s exit by June 30 pays $1 if resolved, a potential 18x return. That bet requires political turmoil severe enough to topple the coalition within 67 days.
What to watch
Any statement or action by Aryeh Deri or Bezalel Smotrich regarding coalition stability will be the next key signal. Watch for whether the government attempts to pass new legislation to circumvent the ruling or if ultra-Orthodox leaders publicly threaten withdrawal.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
