The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is holding, with thousands of displaced people returning home. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, with no movement in the term structure.
Both the April 30 and June 30 ceasefire contracts are at 100% YES, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold through at least mid-year. The Trump endorsement market is also at 100% YES, with US pressure appearing to be a major factor in the ceasefire’s durability.
The military action in Beirut market for April 1 remains at 100% YES due to the long lead time, but the ceasefire has reduced the probability of near-term escalation. Traders appear confident that the halt in hostilities will prevent further military operations in the short term.
These markets are seeing zero face value activity, which points to little speculative interest or large-scale repositioning. The current situation appears fully priced in. A YES share in the ceasefire market offers no payout change, confirming traders see almost no chance of a breakdown before April 30. The ceasefire looks more like a pause than a resolution.
What to watch: Any breach of the ceasefire, particularly reports of shelling or cross-border incidents, and any shifts in US diplomatic posture. The next catalyst would be moves by either Hezbollah or Israel that test the ceasefire’s limits.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
