Israel has extended its special state of emergency until May 7th due to ongoing shelling from Lebanon and uncertainty about a ceasefire with Iran. The US-Iran ceasefire extension market has dropped 15% in response.
The US-Iran ceasefire extension market is now reacting directly to the emergency extension. With Israel maintaining its wartime footing, traders are pricing in lower odds of a ceasefire deal holding. The April 30 odds have yet to be updated post-announcement, but the direction is clearly bearish on a deal.
The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, but the emergency extension raises questions about whether that certainty is warranted. A 25% expected decrease in this market reflects the heightened military posture. Traders should watch whether this figure holds.
The Lebanon offensive market hasn’t seen recent volume. The odds show a suspension, but the lack of trading activity means any sudden news could move the market sharply. Real dollars traded have been negligible, which points to thin liquidity and the potential for large swings on new developments.
For traders, buying YES on the ceasefire extension at 85¢ offers little upside unless diplomatic breakthroughs happen fast. Betting against the Lebanon offensive suspension could pay off if the IDF announces continued operations. Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or Israeli Defense Forces. A statement from Netanyahu or a significant IDF action could trigger rapid repricing.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
