Netanyahu’s military operations in southern Lebanon are being compared to Gaza tactics. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 73.5% YES, up from 41% just yesterday.
Market reaction
Israel’s expanded security zone and ongoing airstrikes drove a 13-point spike in the April 30 ceasefire market at 1:16 PM. The June 30 market holds at 84% YES. The 17-point gap between the two contracts suggests traders expect a ceasefire, but not necessarily before the end of April.
In the Netanyahu tenure market, odds for his ousting by June 30 are at 5.5% YES, barely moving despite the military escalation. Combined daily volume is $69,985 face value but only $1,482 in actual USDC. It takes $8,349 to swing the odds 5 points, making this a thin market vulnerable to single large trades.
Why it matters
The military operations carry significant human cost and international scrutiny. At 73.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire happens by April 30, a 1.49x return. Betting YES here requires assuming that ongoing US-brokered talks produce a de-escalation within 14 days.
What to watch
The scheduled ceasefire negotiation on April 18, where Hezbollah disarmament is expected to be a focal point. Any concrete announcements from those talks could move both ceasefire contracts sharply.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | 0.0¢ | $20K | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.8% | 0.0¢ | $50K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 86.8% | +2.8¢ | $116K | Trade → |
| April 30 | 79.9% | +12.6¢ | $859K | Trade → |
