Israel and the US have been engaged in direct warfare with Iran since February 28th. The confirmation of active conflict places the probability of Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 at 8.2% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
The Israeli action market has been volatile, with a 7-point spike at 11:31 AM pushing it to 21% before settling back. The low current odds suggest traders expect further action but perhaps not within the next three days. Daily face value trading hit $84,332, translating to $5,742 in actual USDC.
The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market has dropped to 37.5% YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago. The largest single drop was 4 points at 5:27 PM. With 12 days left until the end of April, traders are skeptical of a diplomatic breakthrough given the conflict narratives from both sides.
The ceasefire market saw $162,660 in daily face value and $80,435 in actual USDC traded. The book is thick enough to absorb substantial orders, but only $1,566 is needed to shift odds by 5 points, meaning one big trade can still move the market.
The shift from proxy engagements to direct warfare between the US and Iran changes the calculus on both contracts. At 14¢, buying YES on Israeli action pays $1 if it occurs by April 21, a 7x return. That bet requires believing in rapid escalation within three days. A ceasefire by April 30 offers a potential 2.7x return, but would need signs of diplomatic movement soon.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and any changes in rhetoric from US and Iranian leadership. A shift in military or diplomatic posture could move these markets fast.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
