A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has been announced, with Trump calling it a potential “historic day.” The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 97% YES, up from 67% seven days ago. The term structure shows only a 3-point increase over the 61 days between April 30 and June 30, which points to confidence in the ceasefire holding past the initial period.
The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market is at 96% YES, up from 87% in the past 24 hours. The largest single move was a 9-point spike at 1:17 PM, consistent with a swift reaction to the ceasefire news. This market’s term structure shows a 7-point jump from April 17 to April 30, suggesting traders expect specific developments within that window.
Why it matters
Trading volume at $1,205,891 in actual USDC over 24 hours across the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire markets, with $50,093 needed to move odds 5 points. The suspension of Lebanon offensive market traded $339,785, requiring only $25,577 to shift odds by the same margin. That thin liquidity means large trades can move prices quickly, so traders should expect volatility.
The ceasefire is a real shift, but Israeli ground operations continue. At 94¢, a YES share for the April 30 ceasefire pays $1, a modest return that reflects how much confidence is already priced in. For those betting on a continued truce, the upcoming Netanyahu-Aoun summit and US envoy dispatches will be the next signals to track.
What to watch
Watch for White House announcements on the proposed Netanyahu-Aoun summit. Any confirmation of diplomatic meetings or public statements from Israeli or Hezbollah leaders will move these markets.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
