The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released footage of an “Al-Arqab” missile launch targeting U.S. bases. The odds of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 sit at 99.8% YES, nearly unchanged after a brief dip.
This missile strike, amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, reinforces expectations of U.S. ground troops operating inside Iran. The April 30 market remains at 99.8%, with the December 31 market at 99.9%. The term structure shows traders see no meaningful shift in the timeline for U.S. military action.
With $85.7M in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, this is one of the most liquid geopolitical bets on Polymarket. The April 30 market’s depth requires $5.4M to move 5 percentage points, pointing to heavy institutional participation. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was negligible, consistent with firm market consensus on U.S. engagement.
The footage from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq shows continued hostilities, but traders treat it as confirmation of the status quo rather than a change in trajectory. A YES share at 99.8¢ offers a near-certain payout, and traders clearly believe U.S. forces will enter Iran within the month. Without de-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough, this market stays locked at high confidence.
Watch for Pentagon announcements or operational changes from CENTCOM. Shifts in troop movements or formal declarations of ground operations would solidify the current odds.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | +0.1¢ | $84.2M | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.9% | 0.0¢ | $2.5M | Trade → |
