Islamabad has indicated progress toward a broader regional agreement, potentially advancing the “Islamabad process” aimed at resolving the 2026 Iran conflict. The market for whether Trump will announce the US-Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026, currently sits at 100% YES.
Traders are reassessing the likelihood of a ceasefire extension. Regional de-escalation would be directionally bearish for the market predicting an end to the ceasefire, though no significant move has occurred yet. The ceasefire extension market remains at 100% YES.
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market has seen no new developments and sits at just 1% YES for an April 30 agreement. The Islamabad news relates to US-Iran dynamics specifically, not broader regional peace.
Zero USDC has traded in these markets. The stable odds reflect traders waiting for concrete developments rather than active positioning. Liquidity is thin enough that small trades could still move odds significantly.
Islamabad’s progress points toward de-escalation, but without concrete agreements this could be noise. At 1¢, a YES share in the Israel-Iran deal market offers a potential 99x return if new talks emerge.
Watch for diplomatic announcements from Islamabad or related actors like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These would give clearer signals about the direction of negotiations.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
