Yadollah Javani of the IRGC asserts the US can’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military force. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Javani’s comments pushed the Strait of Hormuz traffic market down 2.5 points. The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 has collapsed to 0.7% YES, down from 22% a week ago.
The term structure shows traders expect no near-term diplomatic progress. The April 30 market is at rock-bottom odds with only six days left. The June 30 market sits at 16.7% YES, up from 9% yesterday but still low.
Liquidity is moderate: $36,459 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. It takes $4,658 to move the odds 5 points. The largest price move was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM, likely a direct reaction to Javani’s statement.
For traders, buying YES at 0.7¢ pays $1 if a meeting occurs by April 30, a 142.9x return. But with the IRGC publicly rejecting any military resolution and six days on the clock, the pricing reflects that.
Watch for CENTCOM communications and Iranian state media. Reports of naval movements or changes in military posturing could move these numbers.
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Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.7% | — | — | Trade → |
