Footage shows the IRGC Navy seizing a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting Trump’s claims that Iran’s navy is defunct. The market for UK warships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 3% YES, down from 10% a day ago.
Market reaction
The IRGC footage shows the force asserting control over the waterway. Traders betting on UK warships transiting the strait saw the market drop 7 points in 24 hours, a move that reflects skepticism about near-term British naval involvement. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June also looks less likely given continued IRGC activity.
Why it matters
This market is thin. $200 moves the odds five points, meaning single orders can sway prices. With 3% YES, buying at 3¢ offers a potential 33x return, but that bet requires believing the UK will make a rapid policy shift before April 30.
What to watch
The Strait remains contested, and the question for traders is whether Western navies respond to the IRGC’s latest seizure. Watch UK Defence HQ specifically: any announcement of a frigate deployment could move this market fast given how little liquidity it has.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
