An IRGC gunboat attacked a container ship off Oman while a ceasefire extension remains in effect. The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 has dropped to 14.5% YES, down from 32% just 24 hours ago.
The attack came after President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request. Odds on the April 30 ceasefire market fell nearly 18 points in a single day, as traders priced in the contradiction between a naval attack and ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Daily volume on the April 30 market is $68,607 in USDC. The order book requires $4,074 to move odds five percentage points, indicating a relatively thick market. A 5-point spike to 32% occurred at 6:59 PM yesterday, showing how fast sentiment can reverse.
The IRGC’s attack on a commercial vessel directly contradicts the ceasefire framework. A YES share at 14.5¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is officially announced by the end of April, a 6.9x return. That bet requires a major diplomatic breakthrough in the next nine days.
Watch for responses from CENTCOM or Secretary of State Rubio, and any mediation activity from Oman or Qatar. Changes in diplomatic language or sudden intermediary engagement would likely move these odds.
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