The IRGC says it neutralized over 15 US heavy missiles in Hormozgan, and the Kharg Island control market has dropped in response. The April 30 contract trades at 1.1% YES, down from 5% twenty-four hours ago.
With 6 days left on the April 30 contract, traders have largely priced out any near-term change in control. The May 31 market sits at 11.5%, and June 30 at 15.5%, meaning traders who do see a scenario where Iran loses Kharg Island expect it to play out over months, not weeks.
The April 30 market saw $22,789 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $9,474 needed to move odds by 5 percentage points. The June 30 market requires only $2,514 for the same move, pointing to much thinner liquidity on the longer-dated contract. The largest single price move was a 1-point drop at 11:56 AM, from 4% to 3%.
The IRGC’s claimed intercept reinforces Iran’s ability to defend its territory, which directly bears on whether US forces could take and hold Kharg Island. A YES share on the June 30 contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if the island leaves Iranian control, a 6.25x return. That bet requires believing US-led forces will escalate to capture the island within 67 days.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements about operations in the Strait of Hormuz or any signs of increased US military presence near Kharg Island. Either would likely move these contracts.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
