The IRGC attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz shortly after Trump accepted Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal, sending the permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 market down to 13.5% YES from 18% yesterday.
The April 30 market dropped to 13.5% YES. The May 31 market fell harder in absolute terms, now at 36.5% YES, down from 52% just 24 hours ago. The June 30 contract saw the steepest decline, now at 56.5% YES, as traders repriced the odds of sustained diplomacy across all timeframes.
Volume on the April 30 contract is at $223,691 USDC, while the May 31 contract has traded $135,196. The April 22 market can be moved 5 percentage points with just $2,638, so even small trades create large swings. The biggest single move today was a 4-point spike on the April 30 contract, likely reactionary trading after the attack.
The IRGC’s ship attacks directly undermine the ceasefire agreement and complicate Trump’s diplomatic approach. At 14¢, a YES share on the April 30 contract pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 7.14x return. That’s a bet on a peace deal within roughly one week, in the immediate aftermath of a military provocation.
Watch for public statements from Trump or Iranian leadership, and any Pentagon or IRGC signals of further escalation or de-escalation. These could move odds sharply in either direction.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 56.5% | — | — | Trade → |
