Iran’s plan for tanker oversight in the Strait of Hormuz and its identification of strike targets have lowered the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Iran’s actions in the Strait suggest escalation, causing the April 7 ceasefire market to drop 2 points. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, showing a similar decline. However, the April 30 market rose 4 points to 38% YES, indicating traders expect developments later in the month.
$1.37M in USDC was traded in the last 24 hours, showing strong liquidity. The April 15 and April 30 markets have USDC depths of $43,954 and $16,655 to move 5 points. The largest move was a 4-point rise for April 30, likely due to mid-April expectations. The market is sensitive to geopolitical shifts.
Iran’s stance increases ceasefire risks, with traders betting on further conflict. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. This bet assumes an unlikely quick de-escalation. Traders should monitor Oman or Qatar’s actions and Trump’s statements for negotiation signs.
Hegseth’s upcoming Pentagon briefing is key, especially any operational changes, which could shift odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
