Iran’s IRGC Navy executed swarm tactics in the Strait of Hormuz as the US released footage of a tanker raid. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The Iran military action by April 30 contract is at its ceiling, with traders pricing in further Iranian military moves as a certainty. The Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint for global oil transit, and the latest swarm operation fits a pattern of escalating maritime confrontations.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market tells a different story. The April 30 contract is at 5% YES, while the May 31 contract jumps to 18%, meaning traders expect any strait closure developments to come in the following month rather than immediately.
Why it matters
The Iran coup attempt market hasn’t moved. It sits at 11.5% YES, unchanged over 24 hours. Traders are not reading these naval skirmishes as a signal of internal political instability. Daily USDC volume on that contract is just $10,256, so the price is thin and easily pushed around by small trades.
What to watch
Buying YES on the coup market at 11.5% pays $1 if it resolves, a 8.7x return. That bet requires something well beyond maritime posturing: a real internal power shift. Watch for further IRGC naval operations, changes in US force posture, and the next CENTCOM briefing or IRGC statement, any of which could move sentiment across these contracts.
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Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
