Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has defended ceasefire talks with the US, warning that critics could “destroy Iran.” The US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 sits at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Ghalibaf’s comments come amid internal opposition but signal a push for diplomacy. The April 30 market is now at 37.5% YES, down from 61% a day ago. The April 22 odds are also falling as the deadline looms four days away.
The May 31 market at 63.5% YES and June 30 at 70.5% YES show traders pricing in more substantial progress after April. The gap between near-term and later deadlines suggests the market expects talks to drag past the spring.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations market is unchanged at 3.7% YES, with limited volume suggesting no imminent meeting location breakthrough.
Ghalibaf’s defense of talks could be a real shift or a rhetorical gesture. At 13¢, a YES share in the Trump meeting by April 30 market pays $1 if resolved, a potential 7.7x return. Buying in at that price implies confidence in a diplomatic meeting within 12 days.
Watch for US naval movements in the region and any new statements from the Trump administration. Ghalibaf’s factional positioning within Iran’s government will matter more than his public rhetoric if negotiations actually advance.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 18.6% | — | — | Trade → |
