Iran’s economy continues to deteriorate 100 days after mass protests, with severe inflation and unemployment compounded by ongoing war. Iranian regime fall by April 30 is at 1% YES.
Market reaction
The June 30 market has moved to 6.5% YES, a shift in trader sentiment tied to potential instability catalysts like mass unemployment and inflation potentially exceeding 180%. The April 30 market stays at 1%, with just 12 days left until resolution.
Why it matters
Trading volumes show contrasting liquidity across these contracts. The combined face value of $1.6M translates to only $16,644 in actual USDC traded across regime fall markets. Moving the April 30 market by five points requires $35,587, and the June 30 market has a similar $37,509 threshold. Meaningful odds shifts would require either institutional capital or coordinated buying pressure that hasn’t materialized.
The April 30 market’s low odds reflect clear skepticism about immediate regime collapse. Buying a YES share at 1¢ offers a 100x return if the regime falls by April 30, a bet that requires belief in rapid destabilization within less than two weeks.
What to watch
Signs of further economic degradation or political fractures within Iran’s leadership. Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances and any unexpected Assembly of Experts moves could directly affect these markets.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
