Iran’s economic woes deepen with prices up 40% since the war began, raising the prospect of regime instability. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by April 30 sits at 1.7% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The April 30 market remains subdued, but May 31 at 4% YES and June 30 at 7.5% YES show more trader interest in later instability. Inflation running at 50.6–71.8% is a major factor. The term structure suggests traders see any real instability as more likely after April, given the steeper odds increase at later dates.
Combined face value volumes across the regime fall markets sit at $1,344,830, but actual USDC traded is a modest $49,892. Liquidity is decent: $23,183 is needed to move the April 30 market by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop in the June 30 market, pointing to a steady, not overly reactive trading environment.
Iran’s economic deterioration could fuel internal dissent and, if conditions worsen, regime change. For traders, a YES share for June 30 at 7.5% costs 8¢, paying a 12.5x return if the regime falls. But that requires believing in significant destabilization within 75 days. Without concrete signals like IRGC defections or visible leadership crises, these odds reflect speculative rather than substantive bets.
Watch for Assembly of Experts activities or significant public unrest. Any unexpected appearances or disappearances of key figures like Mojtaba Khamenei could move these markets sharply.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
