Senior Iranian and U.S. officials are expected in Pakistan for potential negotiations. The odds of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by April 30 sit at 3.2%, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
The probability of no US-Iran meeting by June 30 is at 6.2%, down from 9% a day ago. Traders are pricing in a meeting happening soon, possibly in Pakistan. The planned presence of senior officials supports that expectation, though whether they will meet directly remains unclear.
For the Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market, the June 30 contract shows more optimism at 11.5%, though it fell from 14% a day ago. The gap between the April and June contracts suggests traders expect movement by mid-year. The largest shift was a 2-point drop on the June contract yesterday, a sign that skepticism persists.
The peace deal markets have $24,607 in face value but only $1,216 in actual USDC traded. It takes just $111 to move the April contract 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to single large trades. The diplomatic meeting markets are thicker, with $277,961 in face value and $27,347 in actual USDC traded, though a 5-point shift still requires only $167.
At 6.2¢, a YES share on no meeting by June 30 pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 16x return. That bet requires believing in continued diplomatic gridlock. A confirmed meeting location would likely compress those odds quickly.
Watch for announcements from Pakistani officials or updates from US and Iranian envoys. Confirmation of direct meetings would probably cause sharp repricing across both markets.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
