An Iranian state news outlet questioned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s tweet about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Trump’s blockade announcement by May 31 is at 91.5% YES.
Araghchi’s tweet, posted amid a fragile ceasefire, suggested the strait was open for commercial vessels. The state media’s skepticism signals ongoing uncertainty about whether the reopening claim is accurate. The April 19 market dropped to 24.5%, as skepticism around a near-term resolution grows.
The term structure shows a large gap: 24.5% on April 19 versus 91.5% by May 31. Traders expect a catalyst somewhere in that longer window. With only $257 needed to move the April 19 market by 5 points, it is vulnerable to swings from large orders.
The possibility of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran by April 30 sits at 100% YES. But the questioning of Araghchi’s tweet hints at internal discord within Iran’s government, which could slow diplomatic progress and weigh on odds of an immediate resolution.
The May 31 odds remain high, but the market’s thin liquidity means any definitive statement from Trump or shift in Iranian policy could trigger fast moves. At 24.5¢, a YES share for April 19 pays $1 if resolved, a 5.7x return.
Watch for statements from Trump or the U.S. Navy clarifying the blockade’s status. Araghchi’s next public comments, or any official Iranian response to the state outlet’s skepticism, will matter most for near-term pricing.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
