Iranian speedboat attacks on commercial ships have pushed the market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 to 35.6% YES, up from 31% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 market jumped 7 points in 24 hours following the Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz. The 35.6% YES price implies traders expect at least two more successful Iranian attacks in the coming week.
The market is moderately liquid, with $1,298 in daily USDC volume. Moving the odds by 5 percentage points requires just $272, which makes it vulnerable to single large trades. The largest recent price move was an 8-point drop.
Why it matters
Iranian attacks on foreign vessels are a direct challenge to U.S. naval authority and a clear breach of the fragile ceasefire. At 38¢, buying YES offers a 2.63x return if Iran hits two or more ships by April 30. The current pace of confrontations makes that plausible, though any diplomatic breakthrough could collapse these odds quickly.
What to watch
U.S. Navy responses and potential diplomatic moves. A change in U.S. operational posture or Iranian diplomatic engagement would directly affect pricing.
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How Many Ships Will Iran Successfully Target April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 35.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |